Germany 2050: minus 10 million
According to new figures from the Federal Statistical Office, the number of inhabitants in the Federal Republic of Germany will fall from the current 82.4 million to just 69 to 74 million people in the next few decades - as long as the current demographic conditions do not change. Fewer people would live in this country in 2050 than in 1963.
This development cannot be prevented by a slightly higher number of children per woman (currently 1.4 children per woman, but 2.1 would be necessary to keep the population stable) or an even faster increase in life expectancy, he said the authority. The current birth deficit is currently not being compensated for by migration surpluses from abroad, as the Vice President of the Federal Statistical Office, W alter Radermacher, announced in Berlin. In 2005, around 685,000 children were born, while 830,000 people died. At the same time, officially just under 80,000 more men and women immigrated than emigrated, so that according to these figures, a net decline was already recorded last year.
Not only will the population continue to decline, but there will be fewer children and even more elderly people who will live longer and longer. Because of the declining number of potential mothers, the annual number of births will fall to around 500,000 babies annually over the next forty years. At the same time, the life expectancy of 65-year-olds will increase by another 4.5 years. At a good one million, the number of 60-year-olds will then be twice as high as the number of newborns; In 2005, on the other hand, there were almost as many newborns as 60-year-olds. The number of 80-year-olds and older is also growing rapidly: instead of four million as today, there will be ten million in 2050. This has corresponding consequences for the he alth system, the care and school system as well as the labor supply for industry and trade.
The scenario for the future of the working population looks correspondingly pessimistic: Today, the population of working age between 20 and 64 years is around fifty million people, by 2050 this group will shrink by 22 to 29 percent, depending on the extent of immigration. The old-age dependency ratio for the retirement age of 65 years – the number of 65-year-olds and older per 100 people aged 20 to under 65 – is currently 32. However, this will increase significantly in the next few years and after 2020 with the entry of the strong cohorts are skyrocketing towards retirement age, so that it will be around 50 in a quarter of a century and 60 to 64 in half a century. If the retirement age were actually to be permanently shifted to 67, the old-age dependency ratio would rise to 52 or 56 in 2050. If, on the other hand, it is kept stable at the current level, retirement in the medium-term future is not likely to begin until the age of 74 at the earliest.
